CIA Director Bill Burns warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year. There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”
Ukrainian officials clarified that the Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea overnight on April 16 to 17 caused significant damage to Russian air defense equipment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on April 17 that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful strike against the Russian airfield in Dzhankoi.[22] Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 18 that the strike destroyed or critically damaged four S-400 air defense launchers, three radar stations, an air defense equipment control point, and a Murom-M airspace surveillance system.[23]
Russian forces launched a limited series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 17 to 18 and during the day on April 18. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 13 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhartsk, Krasnodar Krai and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea and that Ukrainian forces shot down all the drones.[57] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces struck the Pokrovsk Machine Building Plant and a military equipment repair site in Pokrovsk, Donetsk City with unspecified missiles overnight.[58]Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Lysak reported on April 18 that Russian forces struck Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with two unspecified missiles and damaged an infrastructure facility and an unspecified enterprise.[59] Geolocated footage published on April 18 shows Russian strikes near Liubymivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[60] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces struck an S-300 missile system near Liubymivka and two or three MiG-29 aircraft at the Aviatorske airfield south of Dnipro City.[61] The Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office stated on April 18 that Russian forces likely used an S-300 missile to strike Sorokivka, Kharkiv Oblast in the afternoon.[62]
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Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024. Budanov stated in an April 17 article in the Washington Post that Russia will launch a “big” offensive in June 2024 with the aim of seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.[1] Budanov also stated that Russian forces will try to make battlefield gains throughout 2024 as part of efforts to influence Western decision-making. Budanov had previously forecasted that a future major Russian offensive would begin in late May or early June 2024, and it is notable that Budanov has now narrowed his forecast to June and identified the likely aim of the Russian offensive. Previous major Russian offensive efforts have similarly aimed to seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.[2] Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, have recently warned about the threat of a potential future Russian ground offensive operation targeting Kharkiv City.[3] Ukrainian officials have repeatedly warned that US security assistance is vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend against possible future Russian offensive operations in summer 2024.[4] ISW continues to assess that current Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortages resulting from the lack of US security assistance are allowing Russian forces to make marginal tactical advances and that future Russian assaults may be able to achieve more significant gains should the US continue to withhold assistance to Ukraine.[5] Ukrainian forces have, however, previously demonstrated their ability to repel Russian assaults and inflict significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces when adequately provisioned.[6]
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Budanov also stated on April 17 that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensive operations by continuing strikes against Russian military targets within Russia. Budanov stated in his interview with the Washington Post that the GUR plans to strike Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and critical military targets, such as airfields and command and control posts, in response to Russia’s forecasted summer 2024 offensive.[7] Budanov stated that these strikes are intended to show that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot “protect the [Russian] population from the war.” ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian strikes against targets within Russia are an appropriate component of Ukraine’s campaign to degrade industries that support the Russian war effort and military capabilities deployed in the Russian rear.[8] Recent Ukrainian strikes that have targeted Russian military infrastructure within Russia, threatened Russian oil refining and exports, and increased pressure on Russia’s air defense umbrella have demonstrated that Ukraine can achieve some asymmetrical impacts through strikes with limited numbers of mostly domestically produced weapons.[9]
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- Polish prosecutors said they arrested a man on suspicion of working with Russia’s military intelligence on an alleged plot to assassinate Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
- Germany arrested two men on suspicion that they were working with Russia to plot sabotage attacks on United States military sites in Germany as a way to undermine support for the war in Ukraine. The men are both dual nationals of Germany and Russia.
- China’s Eurasian Affairs envoy Li Hui held talks on the Ukraine war and bilateral relations with the Ukrainian ambassador to China, Pavlo Riabikin, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. It did not elaborate.
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a meeting of G7 foreign ministers that Ukraine had an “urgent, critical need for more air defence”, as Kyiv’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, pressed allies for more Patriot systems.
- Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice president of the European Commission, said the European Union sees signs that China is supplying dual-use components to Russia that could be used to make weapons.
- Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that the Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024.
- Budanov also stated on April 17 that Ukraine plans to counter future Russian offensive operations by continuing strikes against Russian military targets within Russia.
- Russian forces reportedly continue to intensify crypto-mobilization efforts ahead of the expected Russian summer 2024 offensive operation but will likely struggle to establish effective operational- and strategic-level reserves rapidly.
- Ukrainian officials clarified that the Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea overnight on April 16 to 17 caused significant damage to Russian air defense equipment.
- Russian milbloggers seized on a violent crime committed by a migrant in Moscow on April 18 to reiterate calls for further restrictions in Russian migration policies.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) “Schemes” investigative project, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reported on April 17 that Russia’s defense industry is using US- and Japanese-made components in the navigation and communication systems of Russian Sukhoi fixed wing aircraft.
WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “.. Mike Johnson’s behavior is called leadership, and the GOP would be more popular and better able to govern if more of its members showed such mettle themselves—or had more respect for those who demonstrate it.”
Wednesday night, Congressman Jared Moskowitz, known for his use of humor and sarcasm to make his points, declared: “Just submitted an amendment to Bill drafting appointing MTG [Marjorie Taylor Greene] as Putin’s Special Envoy to the United States Congress.”
Moskowitz’s amendment was in response to Congresswoman Greene’s amendments requiring members to “conscript in the Ukrainian military” if they vote for the Ukraine military funding bill, as Juliegrace Brufke reported.
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Protesting Polish farmers have temporarily renewed the blockade of trucks at the Korczowa-Krakovets and Medyka-Shehyni crossings on the Ukrainian border, Ukraine's Border Guard Service said on April 18.
The farmers began blocking trucks at several border crossings in February in protest of Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU's Green Deal. Despite ongoing negotiations between Kyiv and Warsaw, no satisfactory resolution has been achieved so far.
The protesters are expected to block trucks heading to Ukraine via Korczowa-Krakovets until the morning of April 20 and cargo vehicles going through Medyka-Shehyni in both directions until early April 19.
As of the morning of April 18, the Border Guard Service recorded 1,500 trucks waiting in line on the Polish territory.
The ongoing blockade has led to deteriorating relations between Kyiv and Warsaw. Protestors spilled Ukrainian grain on several occasions, sparking outrage in Ukraine.
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